Curse

hallomik · Jun 23, 2008, 02:41 AM // 02:41

We have 3 key pieces of data that tell us how loot scaling works. Combining these three things, we can get a pretty intelligent idea of how LS works.

1) Anet’s explanation - Simplified, Anet tells us that when you solo farm you get a default rate of 1/X the normal amount of drops (where X = max party size) plus all drops that are exempt from scaling. Exempt items include scrolls, tomes, dyes, rare materials, gemstones, gold items, green items and event items. If you soloed a 4-man zone and 10% of all drops were on the “exempt list”, you would expect to get – according to this explanation – about 35% of all drops. Actually, you would expect got get 32.5% (10% + ¼*90%). However, we know from collected data, this explanation is not the whole story.

2) Tmakinen’s research – Thanks to tmakinen (and others) we know conclusively that the longer you wait between kills, the greater the probability of a drop. This does not appear to affect exempt-from-scaling drops like greens, but rather the scaled items like whites and light blues. Tmakinen’s suggestion that the base drop rate described above has another modifier applied to it based on the amount of time that has passed since (and the value of) the last drop is the best explanation we have. This explanation fully clarifies why simultaneous killing of mobs yields very few scaled item drops, and why waiting a few minutes between kills nearly guarantees a drop.

3) Skinny Corpse’s synch farming results – Thanks to Skinny Corpse, we know that drops for an entire zone are determined the moment you enter based upon a random seed tied to the date/time you enter and nothing else. This means that if two people across the world enter a zone at exactly the same time, every mob will be pre-assigned an identical drop.

Upon a quick review, these three explanations appear to contradict each other, but they are all pieces of the loot drop puzzle.

How the combined theory most likely works:

You enter a zone and all drops are assigned to all mobs. Based on the number of people in the party and the max party size for the zone, each player is assigned a base percent chance to get a drop based on Anet’s stated logic. That base rate chance is then adjusted based on the rate of kill and the merch value of each scaled drop received. All the items exempt from scaling will drop as long as the mob is killed.

There are a few implications of this combined explanation.

1) Individual players are not targeted. If you repeatedly enter a zone, your drops will not worsen as a result of that action. On the other hand, if you get increasingly efficient at the run and learn to kill faster and faster, your drops of scaled items will reduce. While there is a penalty for efficiency, that same efficiency will result in faster acquisition of items exempted from scaling like tomes. Nevertheless, although a players are not be individually targeted, it is possible that Anet adjusts drop tables for individual zones. If a zone is receiving a lot of activity and Anet begins to suspect botting, it is conceivable they could adjust drop tables on the fly. The idea that an individual is singled out for worse drops, however, is almost certainly false.

2) “Taking a break” from a zone will not change your drops. That’s the main implication of Skinny Corpse's work. Drops are predetermined at the time you enter a zone for you and everyone else entering at that time.

3) Hard Mode starter areas will yield a higher number of scaled drops for the same rate of kill than a Hard Mode end game area. Starter areas have lower max party sizes (normally 4) and very low merch value collector items. Tmakinen’s research says the lower value of drops means more will drop, and Gaile’s original explanation of base drop rates based on party size imply a higher rate of drops for these areas. While starter zones will yield more drops, the average merch value of those drops will be less than for end game farm spots. Presearing has a base drop of 50% and most mobs are not bunched, and the value of most drops are very, very low. Consequently, nearly all mobs will tend to generate a drop.

4) Slower killing will increase drops of scaled items but will also slow acquisition of exempt items. If your goal is to get exempt items (golds, dyes, event items, etc.), kill as fast as you can. If your goal is to get more merch fodder or common collector items, kill more slowly.

AshenX · Jun 23, 2008, 04:37 AM // 04:37

Very nice summary.

FoxBat · Jun 23, 2008, 06:59 AM // 06:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by hallomik

Tmakinen’s research says the lower value of drops means more will drop

Can someone post a link, that seems not referenced in this thread. I thought that too but my experiments seemed to suggest monster level was more likely the factor (E.G. Hard Mode Ascalon Gargoyles drop far, far fewer skulls than Normal Mode.)

About the Urgoz vs SoJ/Smite threads, keep in mind that according to this threshold theory, you're going to get hit much harder for simulkilling huge mobs (Urgoz) than small to moderate ones (Faranhur). Finding at what # your drops tend to go really bad (relative to your party size) would be interesting, it's possible that the effect isn't significant for your average player outside of places like Urgoz and some of the masters quests. It's just so notable in farming, which has been all about finding absurdly large monster groups. (poor raptors)

Also, Gaile has delivered enough misinformation that contradicts with what we do know ("no effect on full parties", "averaged over the whole zone" etc., that I'm hesitant to trust anything she may have said on the matter. It may guide our research and speculation, but it shouldn't be taken as fact.

Quote:

That really isnt LS.

Yes, it is. Know why? Because you won't miss a single drop solo, if you kill awfully slow. (40 sec-1 minute) Give it a try.

manitoba1073 · Jun 23, 2008, 07:50 AM // 07:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxBat

Yes, it is. Know why? Because you won't miss a single drop solo, if you kill awfully slow. (40 sec-1 minute) Give it a try.

No its not. That is in the determination of loot not in the LS. That is where the bug ToK comes into effect. The slower you kill things allow the determintion(selection of which of player) loot to happen more spaced out.

Cab Tastic · Jun 23, 2008, 08:50 AM // 08:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by manitoba1073

No its not. That is in the determination of loot not in the LS. That is where the bug ToK comes into effect. The slower you kill things allow the determintion(selection of which of player) loot to happen more spaced out.

Which came into effect during the LS update! If this was a bug it would have been fixed by now given how much attention it has had on this and other forums

manitoba1073 · Jun 23, 2008, 09:04 AM // 09:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cab Tastic

Which came into effect during the LS update! If this was a bug it would have been fixed by now given how much attention it has had on this and other forums

No the bug has actually been in game alot longer than that. Its a part of the left over from the old FoW bug. Its just that it actually shows up a hell of a lot more now with LS making it obvious. Why hasnt it been fixed, well who the hell knows why, but I can hazard a hell of a guess. Since so many ppl have so many theories on what is going on and havent been able to show much evidence either way to pin it down. Thats only if they want to believe its one of those theories.

Cyb3r · Jun 23, 2008, 09:18 AM // 09:18

heh the loot allocation bug has been ingame so long it's not funny but hey there's alot of stuff in gw that could use fixing -_-

Fay Vert · Jun 23, 2008, 12:15 PM // 12:15

Good posts from hallomik and FoxBat.

Unfortunately manitoba1073 is not on planet reality. Please explain how loot scaling can allow you to gain a 90% drop rate from mobs solo through slow kills in an 8.

There certainly was no rate of kill bug before the loot nerf. I play a ranger and used to farm using traps and EoE bombing, the rate of kill bug was definately not there before the nerf, trapping and EoE bombing expose this problem better than anything. Anyone that farmed Turai or Protect the Learned will also testify that rate of kill came in with the nerf.

Ate of DK · Jun 23, 2008, 01:53 PM // 13:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fay Vert

Unfortunately manitoba1073 is not on planet reality. Please explain how loot scaling can allow you to gain a 90% drop rate from mobs solo through slow kills in an 8.

He gave you an explanation for that a few posts back.

FoxBat · Jun 23, 2008, 03:22 PM // 15:22

OK, let's assume for a second kill speed isn't loot scaling.

You go out solo and kill some monsters, get a drop for every kill. OK, so you've avoided the "drop allocation" error by killing slowly. Now where the heck is the "scaling for party size" penalty if you're getting the full drops? You'd basically be arguing that Loot Scaling doesn't exist, and explain everything (adjustment for party size/kill rate) on this drop allocation error. Which was coincidentally introduced in an update they called "Loot Scaling".

Also, gargoyles drop a ton more for me on Normal Mode (where they die even faster) than Hard Mode... I say that's because monster level is likely part of the equation, but regardless, how would you blame that on a drop allocation bug?

Finally, Mantinoba makes a big deal about timing, but that doesn't contradict the Loot Scale case either. What would fit the data is that every time you make a kill, a counter/score is incremented by X. This counter's value decays over time (milliseconds) at a logarithmic rate. When a drop is assigned, this counter is checked and adjusts the drop assignment chance accordingly. So getting 5 kills within 1 second yields worse drops than 5 kills in 5 seconds, even if you've spent exactly a minute in the zone in both cases. That might be harder to wrap your head around, but it's less computationally intensive than recalculating the average kill rate per time spent in the zone every millisecond.

Edit: P.S.

Quote:

Now in a zone that has a party size of 8 you have a solo drop rate of around 24%-28% chance to get the drop.

This is patently wrong. Leaving a minute between kills in any zone of the game will give you 90%+.

Maybe there is still some loot allocation bug, but it's insignificant next to Loot Scaling.

Rick_ · Jun 23, 2008, 05:04 PM // 17:04

solo you get 10 drops for example, in an 8 man party you still get those 10 drops.
obviously loot scales up to make it even for the party, or depending on how its implemented, it scales down when you're solo

any other variant is anti farming (aoe vs single kills, time between, first few enemies not dropping anything, etc)

what I'd like to know is if repetitively farming one spot decreases your drops, which is very hard to prove without uneducated speculation.

Also, the HM vs NM for drops is subjective. hm = more golds, but if youre farming ecto, theyre a white item and drop the same amount in hm and nm, so one could argue NM is better because kills are easier, or conversely the gold/pick drops are a better bonus

Fay Vert · Jun 23, 2008, 07:17 PM // 19:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick_

solo you get 10 drops for example, in an 8 man party you still get those 10 drops.
obviously loot scales up to make it even for the party, or depending on how its implemented, it scales down when you're solo

We all know the ANet version, but that doesn't explain solo play getting a drop off of 90% of the mobs, or full party of 12 in urgoz very far in killing 120 mobs and getting about 3 drops between all of you!

Tmakinen's analysis seems to be the only one that holds any water and explains things.

Sync entering a zone does nothing for the loot scaling debate, but it does indicate that the random seed for generating mob drops is done by time (probably to the second) at the time of zone instancing.

manitoba1073 · Jun 24, 2008, 04:39 AM // 04:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fay Vert

We all know the ANet version, but that doesn't explain solo play getting a drop off of 90% of the mobs, or full party of 12 in urgoz very far in killing 120 mobs and getting about 3 drops between all of you!

Tmakinen's analysis seems to be the only one that holds any water and explains things.

Sync entering a zone does nothing for the loot scaling debate, but it does indicate that the random seed for generating mob drops is done by time (probably to the second) at the time of zone instancing.

That is explained by the ToD bug. I do have to ask where is this spot you keep mentioning that is giving 90% drops of the mobs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxBat

Edit: P.S.

This is patently wrong. Leaving a minute between kills in any zone of the game will give you 90%+.

Maybe there is still some loot allocation bug, but it's insignificant next to Loot Scaling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k7zJ...eature=related

That is what I say about leaving a minute inbetween each kill.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick_

what I'd like to know is if repetitively farming one spot decreases your drops, which is very hard to prove without uneducated speculation.

Also, the HM vs NM for drops is subjective. hm = more golds, but if youre farming ecto, theyre a white item and drop the same amount in hm and nm, so one could argue NM is better because kills are easier, or conversely the gold/pick drops are a better bonus

No repetitively entering a zone was removed with HM and LS. No Ecto isnt a considered a white item it is a rare crafting item which is excluded from LS.

Ate of DK · Jun 24, 2008, 02:01 PM // 14:01

Loot Scaling VS "I get over 90% of the drops"

I really don't see the point what people are trying to prove when they mention that they get a drop from 90% of the enemies when they wait a minute between every enemy.

Let me explain why I think that:
Killing 17 enemies (including a boss) each 3 minutes granting me ~4 items

OWNZ

Killing 17 enemies (including a boss) and have 1 min. between each kill to have a guaranteed drop.

You don't see why?
In 17 min I can do almost 6 complete farmruns and have 6x a chance on an elite tome or UW/FoW scroll. Also the number of drops exceeds the 90%.

Cab Tastic · Jun 24, 2008, 07:25 PM // 19:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ate of DK

Loot Scaling VS "I get over 90% of the drops"

I really don't see the point what people are trying to prove when they mention that they get a drop from 90% of the enemies when they wait a minute between every enemy.

Let me explain why I think that:
Killing 17 enemies (including a boss) each 3 minutes granting me ~4 items

OWNZ

Killing 17 enemies (including a boss) and have 1 min. between each kill to have a guaranteed drop.

You don't see why?
In 17 min I can do almost 6 complete farmruns and have 6x a chance on an elite tome or UW/FoW scroll. Also the number of drops exceeds the 90%.

Thank you.

Which is exactly what I and others have been trying to say!!!

LS is not just "Loot Scaling" it has a catch all timer which means no matter how many things you kill, your loot is limited by time!

Fay Vert · Jun 24, 2008, 07:47 PM // 19:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by manitoba1073

That is explained by the ToD bug. I do have to ask where is this spot you keep mentioning that is giving 90% drops of the mobs.

Pretty much everywhere, I already pointed out that the Fahranur link showed it with 50-60 drops from 70 mobs. Yet ANet loot scaling says you should get about 10 (given that a small number will be nerf exempt). When I farm totem axes with poison arrow I get a drop from nearly everything.

manitoba1073 · Jun 27, 2008, 10:44 PM // 22:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fay Vert

Pretty much everywhere, I already pointed out that the Fahranur link showed it with 50-60 drops from 70 mobs. Yet ANet loot scaling says you should get about 10 (given that a small number will be nerf exempt). When I farm totem axes with poison arrow I get a drop from nearly everything.

And did you not notice the types of drops. Most were excluded items of LS.

Fay Vert · Jun 27, 2008, 11:40 PM // 23:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by manitoba1073

And did you not notice the types of drops. Most were excluded items of LS.

I noticed you are spouting rubbish, what a ridiculous statement to make when anyone can just look for themselves and see that it isn't true.

Please look again
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10225077

There are a small number of excluded items, ignore all the exempt items from the screen shots and it still proves that loot scaling is not working as ANet say.

It proves that some forms of farming solo get a drop from most kills and blows your argument clean out of the water.

manitoba1073 · Jun 28, 2008, 02:04 AM // 02:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fay Vert

I noticed you are spouting rubbish, what a ridiculous statement to make when anyone can just look for themselves and see that it isn't true.

Please look again
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10225077

There are a small number of excluded items, ignore all the exempt items from the screen shots and it still proves that loot scaling is not working as ANet say.

It proves that some forms of farming solo get a drop from most kills and blows your argument clean out of the water.

I see it shows exactly what Im saying it does. I suggest you learn how to do chances by flipping quarters.

Fay Vert · Jun 28, 2008, 02:34 AM // 02:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by manitoba1073

I see it shows exactly what Im saying it does. I suggest you learn how to do chances by flipping quarters.

You were made to look pretty silly in that thread of yours, and you are making yourself look pretty silly here now.

You took the gospel according to Gaile, did some crude maths of 2*100/8, sprinkled in a little bit of exception list and come up with a figure that "proves" your world is round. So you arrived at a figure 24%-28% for drops in an 8 man area. Or 32%-40% for a 6 man area. Bravo, we can all do that sum, and it proves nothing because its based on wrong information.

Now comes the tricky part. How do go from those figures to achiving a consistant and reproducable drop rate of over 70%? Do you think randomness would make up the massive difference? If I make 100 kills and your maths tells me I should get 40 drops, what is the chance that I could do a run and get 70 drops? What is the chance that I can get 70 drops ten runs in a row?

Your numbers don't work. Your numbers are based on the false information reported by Gaile, that is why they don't work. Add to that the factor that you can go to an area and kill in a different way that results in far fewer drops, fewer even than your figures suggest and the whole thing is obviously wrong. Okay, I know you say that the lower drop rate is caused by a bug, but that doesn't explain the higher drop rate.

And if you want to go by the official report from ANet as to how its working, why won't you accept what they say when the announced that loot scaling is working exactly as intended, that there is no bug, its just loot scaling.

I believe that ANet are correct in saying it is working as they intended, but that is very different to working as they explained it. It IS based on rate of kill and no basic maths based on Gailes explanation is going to come anywhere near demonstrating reality.